Confidence in the sector grows to its highest level since November, reports FGV



The June advance was driven by both the present assessment and the outlook for the sector

or Industry Confidence Index (ICI) it grew by 1.5 points in June, the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) reported on Tuesday 28. With the third consecutive rise, the index reached 101.2 points, the highest level since November 2021 (102.1 points). Between July last year and March 2022, ICI accumulated a 13-point drop.

The June advance was driven by both present assessments and industry prospects. The Current Situation Index (ISA) increased by 1.9 points to 102.3 points, while the Expectations Index (IE) increased by 1.2 points to 100.2.

“There is an increase in satisfaction with the current corporate situation and very positive judgments on external demand, with emphasis on the good momentum of the non-durable and intermediate consumer segments,” said economist Ibre / FGV Stéfano Pacini in a note. “From the perspective of expectations, the forecasts are optimistic over the three-month horizon, but still cautious over the six-month horizon, a difference perhaps due to concerns about rising inflation and domestic interest rates, as well as to the foreseeable increase in uncertainty during the electoral period “.

The level of installed capacity utilization (NUCI), in turn, increased by 0.6 percentage points to 81.4%, the highest level since June 2014.

In ISA openings, the best performance was the indicator that measures the degree of satisfaction with the level of demand for industrial products, which grew by 3.2 points to 102.9 points, reaching a maximum this year. Entrepreneurs’ perception of the current business situation increased by 1.9 points to 105.6 points, the highest level since October 2021 (106.2 points). After advancing 8.4 points in April, the indicator measuring the inventory level fell by 0.2 points in June, to 101.9 points – when above 100 points, this indicator signals that the sector is operating with stocks beyond desirable.

Among the components of IE, forecast production for the next three months increased by 2.4 points to 102.9, the highest level since December 2020 (110.4 points). The business trend indicators for the next six months and the employment forecast for the next few months increased by 0.6 points and 0.8 points respectively, to 95.2 points and 102.6 points.

Source: Terra

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